My CES Must-See List

CES lasts four days (five if you count the pre-show Press Day), which isn't nearly enough to see everything. In fact, it's not nearly enough to see everything important. But five days is enough time to pick out the big trends. Here are six stories I'll be following at CES.

1. OLED: LG has already confirmed that it will be showing a 55" OLED (organic light-emitting diode) HDTV. The specs are amazing. It weighs 16.5 pounds, and is under a quarter of an inch deep. Samsung is also expected to show a big OLED television.

Because OLED pixels emit no light at all when they're turned off, blacks are anthracite-deep. But there are some questions around large-screen OLED displays: lifespan (especially of blue pixels), immunity to reflection, and price. At CES 2012, we'll start getting the answers.

2. 4K2K: Another emerging high-end television story is the emergence of flat-panel displays with 3,840x2,160-pixel resolution. LG says it will have an 84" 4K2K "ultra definition" LCD at CES. Sharp may also show a big 4K2K display, likely an 80-incher. As there's no current source of 4K2K content, the primary application for these televisions will viewing upconverted HD video.

Here's a question I have about 4K2K: for a given size (70" say), how close do you have to sit to the screen to see a meaningful improvement over HD? In typical applications, does 4K2K deliver real benefits, or is it primarily relevant to home theaters with projectors and really big screens?

3. Big screens: At CES 2011, Sharp announced it would henceforth focus on screen sizes 60" and bigger. It showed a 70" model, then the world's biggest consumer LCD TV. Halfway through 2012, Sharp launched an 80-incher. Will Sharp go beyond 80" in 2012? It will be interesting to see how other companies respond. Surely, Sharp's success with really big screens hasn't escaped its competitors' attention. Will Sharp retain its title as big-screen king? We'll know in a few days.

4. Small computers: The MacBook Air has been a big hit for Apple, and the Wintel world has definitely taken notice. Intel has been promoting pushing its Ultrabook concept for about a year. At CES 2012, loads of vendors will be showing Ultrabooks. And while Apple got there first, its grip on the ultra-portable PC market isn't nearly as unassailable as it is with tablets. There are loads of people who are firmly in the Windows world who would like an Air-like portable, and who will happily pay a premium of a few hundred dollars over a standard notebook.

For 2012, I'm thinking that Ultrabook-like computers will steal some thunder back from the iPad and tablets. Tablets are great for consuming content, but flawed for creating it. Ultra-portable PCs bridge those two worlds; and they're hitting attractive price points.

5. Computer audio: This steadily growing sector is poised to move from niche to mainstream status, both for headphone and out-loud listening. Audiophile brands like Cambridge Audio, Musical Fidelity and Wadia have moved in that direction; and new brands like Burson Audio and Woo Audio have appeared.

The same is happening in the headphone market. These are boom times for established companies like Sennheiser, AKG and Grado; and we're seeing a stream of new brands like Audeze and HiFiMAN.

Larger audio vendors are rapidly moving into this space. Denon, NAD and Paradigm all have very interesting (and quite different) initiatives around digital and personal audio. More proof that this stuff is hitting the mainstream: Samsung has just announced a hybrid tube/solid-state 2.1-channel digital dock that supports wireless playback via AirPlay and DLNA.

6. Network entertainment: Internet TV (IPTV) was a big theme of CES 2011. It will be interesting to see how TV vendors refine their IPTV offerings this year in terms of functionality, ease of use and responsiveness. And it will be interesting to see how the interfaces evolve. Will we see support for control by gesture, using Kinect-like technology? Will the range and quality of content that Canadians can get from IPTV services evolve?

Network entertainment delivered over the Internet is certainly the future. The question is, how quickly will it arrive? And what barriers will vested interests (telecom companies and lapdog regulators) try to impose?

It's going to be an interesting year.