With Christmas Eve two weeks away, the holiday shopping season is well underway. To my eyes, the malls in Southern Ontario still seem pretty quiet. You can get a seat in the food court at lunchtime, and you can find a parking spot in the evening. What does that bode for year-end CE sales?

"I think Christmas and Boxing Day will be more of the same," said Ralph Hyatt, General Manager of the Digital Products Group at Toshiba of Canada Ltd., when he spoke with Marketnews for our 2009 review, which will be published in the December issue. "It will be just kind of OK, not a disaster, but not great."

Martin Szpiro, Senior Vice President at Montreal-based Erikson Consumer, was more upbeat. "This year, Santa will arrive later and leave sooner," Szpiro told Marketnews. "But Christmas will be good and Boxing Day will be very good."

NPD's Canadian Holiday Spending Survey gives reason for optimism. In NPD's Canadian Economy Tracker, respondents' outlook on Canada's economic situation was 51.2 in November 2009, up from 43.4 in December 2008. Their outlook on their personal economic situation was virtually unchanged: 50.1 in December 2008, 50.3 in November 2009. Both indexes measure confidence on a scale from 0 to 100, with 0 representing "very concerned" and 100 representing "very confident." The big change was their three-month spending outlook: that index rose from 49.0 in December 2008 to 59.9 in November 2009. In this index, 0 represents "cut back" and 100 represents "increase spending."

The average planned expenditure for holiday shopping is down slightly this year, from $600 in 2008 to $586 in 2009. 59% plan to spend about the same (2% down from 2008), 10% plan to spend more (down 3%) and 31% plan to spend less (up 5%).

"The fact that Canadians' spending intentions haven't changed dramatically is a good-news story," Mark Haar, Director of Consumer Electronics for NPD Canada, told Marketnews. "There's some optimism heading into the holiday season, and it's reason to be positive about going into next year.

Canadians aged 18 to 34 plan to increase spending to $524 (up $38 from last year), while those aged 35 to 54 plan to cut slightly (from $645 last year to $607 this year). So do those aged 55 to 64 (from $681 in 2008 to $650 this year). The only income group planning to increase spending are with household incomes of $100,00 or greater. These high-income households have a planned spend of $862, up $56 from last year.

Buying intentions for all types of consumer electronics and related items are down slightly from last year (see chart at bottom). However, 33% of Canadians plan to shop in electronics stores this year, a 2% change from 2008. However fewer plan to shop at mass merchandisers like Wal-Mart, Canadian Tire and Zellers (55%, down 2% from 2008) and department stores like Sears and the Bay (42%, down 6% from 2008).

Article Tags:  npd, holiday, shopping, survey, christmas, haar, szpiro, hyatt, toshiba, erikson, study, consumer, confidence, electronics, spending