The Conference Board claims that consumer confidence is on the rise in Canada, reaching its highest point in the past two years this January. But a conflicting study by RBC points a bleaker picture.

According to the Conference Board's index, consumer confidence rose 13.8 percentage points in January, and now stands at 96.6. This is 40 points higher than it was just one year ago.

"This suggests that Canadians are seeing a light at the end of the recession tunnel," says Pedro Antunes, Director, National and Provincial Forecast.

But RBC's Canadian Consumer Outlook Index says that Canadians are worried about the economy, and showing signs of increased job anxiety. According to this index, consumer outlook dropped slightly to 106, and almost six in 10 Canadians cite being concerned about their level of debt. Twenty-six per cent say at least one member of their household is worried about losing his job.

However, as Craig Wright, Senior Vice President and Chief Economic at RBC points out, this could be attributed to the fact that 2,600 people lost their jobs during the month of December. "Canadians were likely reacting to those numbers and expressing some insecurity," he explains. The unemployment rate in Canada remains at 8.5%.

In the RBC study, the light at the end of the tunnel for most is a goal to be "debt-free"' those aged 18-34 feel this will happen at age 43; those 35-54 predict by 59; and those over 55 don't expect to be free of debt until they're at least 66.

The Conference Board's index pegs the Western provinces as showing the greatest gains, led by B.C., which showed an index of 109.1, up 22.2 points. This represents the largest monthly gain ever recorded for the province. But oddly, the RBC study reports that job anxiety is highest in that same province, followed by Alberta, at 32% and 31%, respectively.

In the Prairies, the Conference Board index jumped 15.3 points to 106.8; 13.6 points to 103 in Atlantic Canada; and 12.3 points in Ontario, rising to 93.7 points; more than double the level in December 2008. In Quebec, the index was not disclosed, but is "significantly lower" than the rest of Canada. Still, it rose 9.4 points.

RBC claims that job anxiety is lowered in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (19%) and Atlantic Canada (18%).

Overall, however, the RBC index does show some form of balance: it states that 52% of Canadians feel the economy is "bad" while an almost equal amount, 48%, say it's good. What's more, a greater number of Canadians feel their personal financial situation is better than it was three months ago. Fifty-six per cent feel the overall economic situation will improve this year.

"Over the course of 2010," adds Wright, "we expect to see a sustained improvement in the labour market."

The Conference Board survey was conducted between January 7 and 24; and the RBC study between January 8 and 14, 2010.

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